Philosophy Wire by Spiros Kakos [2011-05-04]: Students of the UCLA university predicted the location of bin Laden’s hideout with great accuracy [source: web news]. The prediction was based on an analysis of the geography of endangered species, according to which species which are endangered ” (such as Bin) prefer to reside in areas with low frequency of species extinction (such as a large city). Impressive discovery. However eventually Laden did not survive and that tactic failed. What does this mean? How valid is a forecast announced after finding Bin Laden? Surely many will say that the research was published many years ago and they will be right. But at the same time as this “prediction” was published, there were many other equally “scientific” forecasts that Laden was elsewhere in the world. If a method makes all possible predictions, is it not reasonable that ultimately one of them will succeed?
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